Australian legislative election, 2004

Australian legislative election, 2004

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Australia in 2004. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the 76-member Senate will be up for election. The conservative coalition of the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister John Howard, and the National Party of Australia led by John Anderson, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. They will be opposed by the Australian Labor Party, led by Mark Latham.

Table of contents

1 Date
2 The House of Representatives
3 The Senate
4 Issues
5 Party leaders

Date

Under Australia's Westminster system, the date of the election is a matter for the discretion of the Prime Minister. To call an election, the Prime Minister advises the Governor-General to dissolve the current Parliament by proclamation and issue writs for the election of a new Parliament. There must be at least one month between the issuing of the writs and the date of the election.

(Technically, writs for the election of Senators are issued by the Governors of the Australian states. This is because the Senate, according to the Constitution of Australia, is supposed to represent the states, although in fact it is elected on party lines. The state Governors issue the writs on the request of the Governor-General when a federal election is called.)

The current Parliament was elected on 10 November 2001, for a three-year term. The Parliament's term, however, is dated not from the election but from the date of the first sitting of the Parliament, which was in March 2002. The last date on which an election can be held is therefore Saturday 23 April 2005. It is considered highly unlikely, however, that the Prime Minister will delay calling the election beyond October or November 2004.

Although the Prime Minister can call an election for the House of Representatives at any time, the timing of Senate elections is restricted by the Constitution. Senators' terms always expire on 30 June, regardless of the date of the election, and a normal election for half the Senate cannot be held more than a year before the Senators are due to take their seats. The terms of the Senators elected in 1998 expire on 30 June 2005 (Senators serve six-year terms). A half-Senate election cannot therefore be held before 30 June 2004.

The Prime Minister has the option, however, of calling a double dissolution election, at which the whole Senate as well as the House of Representatives must face re-election. This is a device for resolving deadlocks between the House of Representatives and the Senate. The government already has the prerequisites for a double dissolution, because the Senate has twice rejected several pieces of government legislation. A double dissolution cannot be held within the last six month's of a Parliament's term, meaning that this option will expire for the current government in September.

The House of Representatives

After the 2001 election the party strengths in the House of Representatives were as follows:

Party Seats ------------------------------------------------------------ Liberal Party 69 National Party of Australia 13 Australian Labor Party 65 Independents 3 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total 150 ------------------------------------------------------------

In October 2002 the Australian Greens won a by-election in a seat previously held by the Labor Party following the resignation of the sitting member.

During 2003 new constituency boundaries were drawn up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. This had the effect of changing one Labor held seat in Victoria into a notionally Liberal seat.

The parties will therefore go into a 2004 election with the following notional strengths:

Party Seats ------------------------------------------------------------ Liberal Party 70 National Party of Australia 13 Australian Labor Party 63 Australian Greens 1 Independents 3 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total 150 ------------------------------------------------------------

To gain a majority in the House of Representatives, the Labor Party must therefore make a net gain of 13 seats. If Labor were to gain 12 seats, and the Green member to be re-elected, it is probable that the Green member would support a minority Labor government. If Labor were to gain 11 seats, it is possible, though far from certain, that one of the three independent members would support a Labor government. The other two independent members are conservatives.

The Senate

Because the Senate is elected by proportional representation, it is very difficult for either of the major parties to gain a majority. The last Prime Minister to have a majority in the Senate was Malcolm Fraser in the period 1975-1981. Since then the balance of power in the Senate has been held by minor parties and independent Senators.

The current state of the parties in the Senate is as follows:

Party Senators ------------------------------------------------------------ Liberal Party 31 National Party of Australia 4 Australian Labor Party 28 Australian Democrats 7 Australian Greens 2 Pauline Hanson's One Nation 1 Independents 3 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total 76 ------------------------------------------------------------

The Liberal and National parties thus need a gain of four seats to win a majority in the Senate, while the Labor Party needs a gain of 11 seats. Neither of these outcomes is considered likely.

There is likely to be change in the distribution of seats among the minor parties. The Australian Democrats have suffered from internal conflict and leadership changes since 2001 and are considered in grave danger of losing two or three seats, probably to the Australian Greens, who have seen a surge in their support in opinion polls. Pauline Hanson's One Nation has disintegrated since the withdrawal from politcs of Pauline Hanson. Their sole Senate seat is considered likely to revert to the National Party.

Issues

John Howard won the 2001 elections after trailing Labor in the opinion polls for two years, by seizing on the issues of national security, following the September 11 terrorist attacks, and border protection against illegal immigrants (see MS Tampa). It is unlikely that these issues will dominate the 2004 election to nearly the same extent. Howard's campaign, nevertheless, will seek to portray him as a tough and experienced leader who can be trusted with Australia's security, and who has good relations with Australia's principal allies, the United States and Britain.

On domestic issues, polls have consistently shown that the Liberals are regarded as sound managers of the economy, but that voters are opposed to the government's policies in the fields of health, education, the environment and other areas of social policy. Labor has accused the government of seeking to dismantle Australia's system of universal health insurance, Medicare, of restructuring Australia's higher education system to the benefit of students from wealthier families, and of endangering the environment by refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

The election will therefore hinge on whether voters choose to give priority to issues of national security and border protection, or to issues of social policy. Labor's new leader, Mark Latham, has sought to improve Labor's image on national security issues by stressing Labor's support for the U.S. Alliance, and to develop new policies on border protection. Likewise, Howard spent much of 2003 introducing new health and education initiatives in an effort to improve the government's standing in these areas.

Party leaders

John Howard has been an MP since 1974, leader of the Liberal Party since 1995 (he was previously leader from 1985 to 1989), and Prime Minister since March 1996. He will turn 65 in July 2004, a fact which may become an election issue. He is by far the most experienced politician in Australian federal politics. He is considered a master of political strategy and until recently his re-election for a fourth term was considered almost certain.

John Anderson has been an MP since 1988 and leader of the National Party since 1999. Although talented and personable, he has been unable to stem the long-term decline in the Nationals' rural electoral base.

Mark Latham has been an MP since 1994 and was elected leader of the Australian Labor Party in December 2003. He was elected following the resignation of Simon Crean, who was given no chance, even by his own party, of defeating Howard. Since his election Latham has campaigned aggressively and made a good impression, although he has yet to be seriously tested. The sittings of the Parliament during 2004 and the opinion polls will reveal whether he can mount a serious challenge to Howard.

Andrew Bartlett has been a Senator since 1997 and leader of the Australian Democrats since 2002. His efforts to revive the Democrats' fortunes after a year of damaging internal conflict were severely set back by an incident in December 2003 in which he accosted a Liberal Senator in the Senate chamber while visibly drunk. It remains to be seen whether his standing can recover.

Bob Brown has been a Senator and the informal leader of the Australian Greens since 1996. By resolutely opposing Australia's participation in the Iraq War he has established himself as the leader of the Australian left and has a high reputation for integrity.