The Law of unintended consequences holds that almost all human actions have at least one unintended consequence. In other words, each cause has more than one effect. Much of this is due to the complexity of the world, although a certain amount can also be attributed to human stupidity and self-deception.
Unintended consequences can be both negative and positive. The most common kind of unintended consequences arise from perverse incentives, a term for an incentive that has the opposite effect to that intended. See the article on perverse incentives for many examples of this.
Examples of unintended consequences:
- In medicine unintended consequences are known as side effects. Most drugs have some side effects. As with other unintended consequences, these are often negative, but are sometimes beneficial, for instance asprin, a pain reliever can also help prevent heart attacks.
- The introduction of rabbits into Australia for sport led to an explosive growth in population, and led to rabbits becoming a major pest in Australia.
- "Prohibition", intended to suppress the alcohol trade, drove many small-time alcohol suppliers out of business, consolidating the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry.
- Sixty years later, the "War on Drugs", intended to suppress the illegal drug trade, has driven many small-time drugs dealers out of business, consolidating the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal drugs industry.
- The medieval policy of setting up large hunting reserves for the nobility has preserved green space throughout England.
- The wartime sinking of ships in shallow waters creates artificial coral reefs.
- In CIA jargon, "blowback" describes the phenomenon of supporting a foreign regime or terrorist entity, on the principle that your enemy's enemy is your friend, only to have it attack you, often with the weapons and resources you gave it. Examples include:
- In U.S. sentencing policy, the three-strikes law may contribute to criminals committing homicide to escape the life imprisonment that would otherwise result from a less violent felony.
- In countries where firearm ownership is or was recently legal, restrictions on legal ownership of firearms has been associated with increases in personal crimes as criminals have less to fear from victims who are more likely to be unarmed.
See also
References
- Tomislav V. Kovandzic, John Sloan III, and Lynne M. Vieraitis. Unintended Consequences of Politically Popular Sentencing Policy: The Homicide-Promoting Effects of 'Three Strikes' in U.S. Cities (1980-1999). Criminology & Public Policy, Vol 1, Issue 3, July 2002.
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